Tuesday, September 22, 2015

August 31 - September 8, 2015 Hurricane Forecast Results

Here is the next installment of forecast results from my Dell Horoscope article Celestial Storm Warnings - Predicting the 2015 Hurricane Season. The article appeared in the June 2015 edition.

The long-range forecast for August 31 through September 8 focused first on Louisiana (Aug 31 - Sept 3) and then on Texas (Sept 4-8).

Forecast
For the Louisiana area the forecast stated that the planetary alignments at this time "intimate[s] that severe weather potential, possibly tropical in nature, is in the cards for this location."

Results

On August 30th, the National Hurricane Center posted the map below showing the position of the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika off the coast of Florida in the eastern Gulf.

30 Tropics

Forecasters then warned on the 31st that a trough associated with the leftovers from Erika would affect the Gulf from Florida to the Yucatan. For Louisiana, this meant that "a very moist and unstable tropical air mass" was in place over area according to the NWS. Forecasters for Eastern Texas also were monitoring "potential for locally heavy rainfall." The following Accuweather map for Sept 2nd shows the conditions.

02 Erika's Moisture

Forecast
The next portion of the forecast (Sept 4-8) for Texas called for "tropical moisture of some kind or increasing temperatures, possibly resulting in severe thunderstorms."

Results

Accuweather.com reported on Sept 7th "Welcome Rainfall, Heat Relief to Spread Across Texas." The Accuweather map below depicts the expected rainfall on the 9th through the 11th - a bit later than I expected.

07 Texas

Links to Other Long-range Weather Forecasts and Forecast Results

California Drought and El Niño: Fall 2015 Forecast 
Hurricane Dolores Fulfills Long-range Weather Forecast
Hurricane Season 2015 Long-range Weather Predictions
Tropical Cyclone Hadi
Hurricane Erick Fulfills Long-range Forecast
Tropical Storm Andrea Fulfills Long-range Forecast!
Timing the Relief for Drought-Stricken U.S. Plains
Testing Astrometeorology Part 2
Hurricane Sandy Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!
Testing Astrometeorology Part 1
Hurricane Season 2011 Forecast Results
Hurricane Risk-Management
New Weather Alternative Website
Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010
Introduction to the Weather Alternative

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